Bush Is Still Big Underdog
says Harvard Kennedy School of Government
_____________________
FOUR REASONS BUSH IS AN UNDERDOG
(1) A self-described "war president" needs to be winning the war at re- election time. U.S. troops are bogged down in Iraq, and the death toll is growing.
(2) Bush and his party represent a declining demographic. The Republican Party is a white, male, Anglo-Saxon Protestant party, as photos from its convention show.
(3) Re-election is not the presidential norm. Only 11 presidents have served eight consecutive years. President Reagan was the last Republican president to be re-elected.
(4) Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. The three presidents who failed the first time around to win the popular vote did not return to the White House.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/09/19/INGJ68OT8L1.DTL
Martin F. Nolan, a veteran political reporter, is a fellow at the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.
_____________________
FOUR REASONS BUSH IS AN UNDERDOG
(1) A self-described "war president" needs to be winning the war at re- election time. U.S. troops are bogged down in Iraq, and the death toll is growing.
(2) Bush and his party represent a declining demographic. The Republican Party is a white, male, Anglo-Saxon Protestant party, as photos from its convention show.
(3) Re-election is not the presidential norm. Only 11 presidents have served eight consecutive years. President Reagan was the last Republican president to be re-elected.
(4) Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000. The three presidents who failed the first time around to win the popular vote did not return to the White House.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/09/19/INGJ68OT8L1.DTL
Martin F. Nolan, a veteran political reporter, is a fellow at the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.
Comments
The ideologues this president has surrounded himself, do not in my humble opinion represent the desires of the majority of voters.
Take the "death tax repeal". This benefits only the top 1% of the country. Yet, every right-wing talking head spins this as if god had ordained that wealth should be allowed to accumulate in the hands of the small business owner or farmer. However, estate tax repeal has nothing to do with small business or small farms. Its Gates, Kennedy, Rockefeller, Limbaugh, Bush, Cheney, Ophra, the "Hollywood elite".... the very few who have over $6,000,000 that benefit. The Democrats were willing to lift the ceiling, but the Republicans wanted total repeal. Average Joe gets nothing out of this. Maybe Republicans are eternal optomists and believe one day they too may have $50 mil.
What about the dividend tax reduction. Since average Joe has very modest stock holdings, if any, outside his 401(k), this did not benefit him directly either. I think the jury is out on whether there was any economic stimulus in this part of the 2003 tax bill. Same with capital gains rate reduction. From an economic standpoint, it would have made more sense to give corporations a full or partial deduction for dividends paid rather than targeting the "rich" with this tax break. See the Paul O'Neill book regarding Cheney's comments on the 2003 tax cuts.
The majority of Americans favor abortion, albeit some late term procedures are abhorrent to many. The president has shown repeatedly the types of judges he would appoint are ideologues as well. That's why the Democrats have used the fillabuster to block extreme judges from the bench. Should Bush get another 4 years, he surely will appoint one or more judges to the Supreme Court.
Foretunately for the Bushies, Kerry cannot get his message straight and the media just seems to eat out of the hand of the Republican talking points on a daily basis. Starting with the morning talk shows every day, Karl has got the word out as to what the spin is.